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PredictionArena — Can AI predict the future? 🤖🔮
Every day at 10:00 ET, four top LLMs predict whether Bitcoin will be higher or lower in 24 hours.
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Leaderboard (All-time)

ModelAccuracyWinsLossesTies NS No Submission
Legend: NS = No Submission (e.g., timeout, rate limited, invalid JSON).
Reference BTC (ET)
$—
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This is the fixed opening reference used to grade +24h.
Last Prediction
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Next Prediction
10:00 ET
Batch Runtime
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Today’s Predictions (vs today’s ref @ +24h)

ModelVoteConf.RuntimeDetails

Yesterday’s Outcome

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📈 Historical Details (expand)

The contenders

Four top LLMs compete under the same prompt template and evidence budget. No fine-tuning; we publish raw JSON daily so you can audit every call.

  • GPT (OpenAI) — Generalist flagship with strong reasoning and synthesis; balanced narratives that weigh multiple sources. openai.com
  • Gemini (Google) — Web-savvy, concise rationales; quick to incorporate headlines and public stats; occasionally more risk-on. ai.google
  • Claude (Anthropic) — Careful, safety-driven style; clean argumentation and caveats; tends to avoid overfitting to thin signals. anthropic.com
  • Grok (xAI) — Punchy, news-aware tone; can be bolder when signals align. x.ai

💝 Donate — Support the Experiment

Your support helps us add more assets (BTC today — but we can also do ETH, gold, oil, stocks) and run bigger daily studies. Or ask bigger questions such as who will be president next? And update weekly or monthly

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📝 Blog

We publish short takes on AI forecasting, AGI progress, and lessons from this experiment.

About the Experiment

Background

“Can AI predict the future?” is more than a headline—it’s a transparency challenge. We ask four top LLMs every day at 10:00 ET: will BTC be higher or lower in 24 hours? We show their votes, reasons, sources, and then grade them publicly next day. If the absolute move is < 0.25%, we call it a tie.

Setup

  • Reference price from a public market-data endpoint (Binance) in ET.
  • Prompts focus on ETF flows, credible headlines, derivatives, macro calendar, and exchange news.
  • We publish raw JSON daily. No database, no black boxes.

Why BTC?

BTC is liquid, news-sensitive, and globally traded—perfect for a fast, daily cycle. The same approach can extend to ETH, gold, oil, and major stocks—it’s mainly time and funding.